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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.