Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
